Daily Stat: Groupon Leaves Some Businesses Dissatisfied

42% of a sample of 150 businesses that ran Groupon promotions between June 2009 and August 2010 said they wouldn't run a Groupon promotion again, according to a study of the social-media coupon site by Utpal M. Dholakia of Rice University. One of the main reasons: A significant proportion of Groupon redeemers are extremely price sensitive, barely spending beyond a discounted product's face value. Google has bid to purchase Groupon for $6 billion.

Management Tip of the Day: Abolish Great Meetings

Abolish Great Meetings

Having a "great meeting" often means that everyone in the room agreed on a topic without debate or discomfort. Yet, most great ideas are born from conflict and differences of opinion, rather than effortlessly run meetings. Next time you are organizing a meeting, don't focus on making it go smoothly. Instead, pay attention to moving your business objective forward. Only invite people who truly have a stake in the goal, not those who have a territorial claim or just want to be heard. Good results come from complex, iterative, and challenging processes. Rather than making sure your ideas and discussion fit perfectly into the hour time frame, be willing to leave the issue unresolved and have another "bad" meeting to follow up.

The Daily Stat: Unimportant Posts Can Get You Unfriended on Facebook

The number 1, 2, and 3 reasons why people get unfriended on Facebook are: Frequent, unimportant posts; posts about polarizing topics such as politics; and inappropriate posts, such as racist comments, according to research by Christopher Sibona, a graduate student at the University of Colorado Denver. 57% of respondents to his survey unfriended for online reasons, while 27% did so for offline behavior.

Source: Business School student finds top reasons for Facebook unfriending

Why expensive consultancy firms are giving away more research

from economist: original article here

IN THE run-up to the climate-change conference in Copenhagen last year, a curvy graph was passed around by policymakers and NGOs. It showed various options for cutting carbon-dioxide emissions. At one end of the chart were simple efficiency improvements which would both cut CO2 and save money; at the other end were costly technologies like nuclear power and carbon capture. Climate-watchers found the graph useful for demonstrating how many money-saving or cheap technologies there were. As one veteran put it, “We all speak McKinsey’s language now.” The graph was indeed put together not by a tree-hugging NGO, but by the for-profit consultancy.

All consulting firms seek to provide what they annoyingly call “thought leadership”. McKinsey’s rival, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG), became well known in part by distributing its ideas freely. Consultancies now put out short opinionated papers as well as data-laden reports such as BCG’s recent one on wind power in China or PricewaterhouseCooper’s on electronic health records. Fiona Czerniawska of Sourceforconsulting.com says the number of such reports from the top 25 firms has quintupled since 2004. Free reports are expensive to produce: Tom Rodenhauser of Kennedy Information, a firm that monitors consultancies, reckons they cost up to 5% of gross revenues. Are they worth it?

Ironically, given how much grief they would give a client who failed to answer such a question precisely, the consultancies cannot prove they are. Clients rarely say they hire a firm on the strength of its free publications. But the firms nonetheless defend the growing practice as a form of marketing. Costly consultancies like BCG and McKinsey are hired by chief executives or those near that rank. Their reports (and, increasingly, their webinars and podcasts) are an excuse to contact potential clients and a way of boasting about the brainpower they can apply to problems.

Thought-provoking reports also help recruit the talented. Many graduates join consultancies and put up with being merely affluent—instead of joining investment banks and becoming obscenely rich—for the intellectual stimulation that consulting seems to offer. BCG, for example, recently invited all its staff with doctorates (a few dozen) to a conference to swap Big Ideas. Many of the ideas, from biology to musicology, influenced the subsequent year’s research programme.

Producing free research especially helps young consultants prove their worth, both to clients and to others within the firm. Christopher McKenna, a historian of consulting at Oxford University, says clients may balk at paying handsomely for a “young punk” of a consultant. A young punk who has written an impressive paper is a different matter. Spots for year-long stays at the consultancies’ in-house think-tanks such as the McKinsey Global Institute, BCG’s Strategy Institute and the IBM Institute for Business Value are fought over fiercely.

Is the research they produce any good? Some thought leadership is “academic masturbation”, says Mr Rodenhauser, but some of it is excellent: McKinsey’s analysis of China’s economic data, for example, or IBM’s specialist writing on technology. The effect of putting out free reports may be hard to measure, but Lenny Mendonca, McKinsey’s head of knowledge development, is not about to stop. “We only worry if we’re spending enough,” he says.

$$$ comes slowly

打工就像储蓄，虽然稳定，但赚不了太多

What's Out

可以是懷舊設計類品牌名稱：What's Out

類似Delay No More的英字中意的用法，只不過What's Out是普通話

版權所有 違者必究

其實沒錢注冊 被誰看到了拿去用我也沒轍，what's out!

按需分配

什麼叫按需分配，就是當你剪短頭髮後洗頭液少用一些，長(zhang 3)長(chang 2)後多用一些。

KPMG Buys Supply Chain Consultancy

Auditing firm acquires Grant Thornton consulting division to expand capabilities

KPMG announced the acquisition Monday of the U.S.-based supply chain consulting division of Grant Thornton, expanding the auditing firm's financial and operations services.

KPMG will retain 23 supply chain professionals employed at Grant Thornton. The purchase for an undisclosed sum includes the group’s proprietary software and contracts with what KPMG said are “select Fortune 500 companies.”

KPMG said the purchase comes as more companies are undertaking top-to-bottom restructuring of operations, from supplier relationships to financial management across the supply chain.

“As the already strong demand for large scale transformation and restructuring assistance continues to grow, this acquisition helps us provide the functional breadth and depth needed by large organizations across several key industry sectors," said Mark A. Goodburn, vice chairman and head of advisory at KPMG. “It's also consistent with our continuing strategy to build superior large-scale transformation capabilities to serve the world's top organizations.”

from JOC: KPMG Buys Supply Chain Consultancy

10 Rules to Instantly Improve Your Presentations

10 Rules to Instantly Improve Your Presentations

排行榜：英国《金融时报》全球五百强企业排名 - FT中文网

排行榜：英国《金融时报》全球五百强企业排名 - FT中文网

100 Search Engines Every Business Student Should Bookmark

100 Search Engines Every Business Student Should Bookmark

省心又赚钱的“全天候”投资组合

要

是有一种"全天候"投资组合，虽然构成几乎是一成不变 的，却能够在几乎所有的市场环境下表现得可圈可点，你会有兴趣吗？

我觉得答案会是肯定的──特别是在经历了又一天令人难以置信的动荡之 后。在这一天中，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数由涨变跌，从前市上涨近100点到收盘跌了115点。

相关 报导

偏执狂的投资组合
以不变应万变的懒惰投资组合

想 想上世纪70年代末哈里•布朗(Harry Browne)向客户推荐的所谓的"永久投资组合"。当然，布朗时任投资报导《哈里•布朗特别报告》(Harry Browne's Special Reports)的编辑。几十年之后，他成了美国自由党(Libertarian Party)总统候选人。他于2006年去世。

布朗在 七、八十年代写就的好几本投资指导书都成了畅销书。其中有一本《为什么最周详的投资计划通常会失败》(Why the Best-Laid Investment Plans Usually Go Wrong)出版于1987年，该书的大部分篇幅都是在向投资者介绍一种分散化投资组合的好处，这种投资组合的构成常年保持不变──换句话说，是永久性 的，除非年度重新调整。

尽管布朗的想法并不新颍，最近的市场却让很多投资者重新对此产生了兴趣。首先，我们先是经历了大萧条以来最严重的 一轮熊市，接着很快就是有史以来难得一见的连续12个月强劲上涨。然后是"闪电崩盘"，在短短几分钟内，道琼斯指数就蒸发了近1,000点。

投 资者开始怀疑，市场是否被操纵了，在与他们作对。

布朗的观点是投资于一篮子资产类别， 各个类别之间的相关性很低。这样，当其中任何一个资产类别表现欠佳时，其他类别至少有很大的机会能够坚守──如果实际上没有升值的话。

这 种投资组合应该能够提供一种不错──但不能算十分可观──的回报，同时动荡相对较低。

布朗建议的一篮子投资组合由股票、长期国债、黄金和 短期国债组成，每种各占四分之一。他在1987年出版的书中写道，在过去的17年中，一直追溯到70年代，这种投资组合创造了12.0%的年化回报率。这 比无论是买进并持有股票还是债券的表现都要好，不过不及黄金。

正如布朗所写的，考虑到这种投资组合实际上不需要持有者花心思关注，其收益 是惊人的，投资者无需参透未来，无需做出投机性决策。

布朗的方法在随后的几十年中表现继续如他所宣扬的一样。想想基本上源于布朗方法的永 久投资组合基金(Permanent Portfolio)。该基金目前的目标配置是25%的金银、35%的美国国债、15%的进取性成长型股票、15%的房地产和自然资源类股、10%的瑞士 法郎资产。

在截至今年4月30日的15年来，这只基金年化回报率为8.2%。鉴于股票、黄金和债券哪一个都没有它表现好，这样的回报是相 当惊人的。同期，威尔希尔5000指数涨了7.9%，Shearson Lehman Treasury Index的年化回报率为6.3%，黄金价格涨幅折合年率为7.7%。

实际上，永久投资组合基金过去15年的表现要好过我所跟踪的投资顾 问中的74%。

在你遭遇更多骇人的市场动荡之际，你可能会想铭记布朗的投资方法。他的永久投资组合可以作为一种提醒，让我们不必为追求不 错的长期回报而一直押宝市场短期走势，也不致遭遇巨大损失。

Management Tip of the Day: Think Twice Before Updating Your Facebook Status

It's becoming an increasingly common storyline: job candidate loses job opportunity because prospective boss finds unflattering information online. If you think you might be in the job market any time soon, or ever really, be sure that you think twice before you post anything online. This applies to photos, comments on blogs, tweets — anything that can be linked back to you. Even small bits of information or comments that you feel are innocuous could count against you with future employers. This doesn't mean you have to avoid all online activity, just be careful and thoughtful about the image you send to anyone who wants to know more about you.

The Daily Stat: Transformation Efforts Need Grassroots Input

Employee engagement is a key success factor for organizational transformation. In a recent McKinsey survey, nearly 100% of respondents who characterized their companies' change-management initiatives as extremely successful said employees could contribute ideas to shape the efforts. And nearly aquarter of the extremely successful transformations were planned by groups of 50 or more, compared with just 6% of unsuccessful transformations.

Management Tip of the Day: 3 Tips for Asking Better Questions

For leaders to be effective, they need to connect honestly with others: investors, direct reports, fellow leaders. Asking good questions can not only help you find out essential information, but also lay the groundwork for collaboration. Often it's not about what you ask, but how. Here are three tips for improving the way you ask questions:

1. Be curious. Doing all the talking doesn't make you an effective leader. Be inquisitive and ask about topics that are important to you and to the person with whom you're talking.
2. Be open-ended. Use what, how, and why questions. Don't just ask about events, but about thoughts and motivations as well.
3. Dig deeper. Don't accept the first answer you get. Ask follow-up questions to get more detail and surface the real story.

Management Tip of the Day: Use the Three-Minute Rule to Better Understand Your Customers

Surveys and focus groups can tell you a lot about your customers. But there are indirect analyses that can be equally revealing. Try using the three-minute rule to better understand the broader context in which your customers use and interact with your products and services. Ask what your customer is doing in the three minutes immediately before and after using your product. By doing this, you may discover an unnecessary complexity they have to overcome. Or you may identify a cross-selling opportunity if they interact with another product or service right before interacting with yours. This rule is a great way to see the big picture and identify adjacent opportunities.

Management Tip of the Day: Enjoy Trying on the Way to Achieving

Trying something new can be daunting, especially if you fall short at first. Before you get frustrated and give up, remember that practice really does make perfect. To achieve perfection, stop focusing on it. Instead, try to enjoy the process of trying. If you want to be a great manager, you need to enjoy being a poor one long enough to get good at it. If you want to be a stellar salesperson, you need to spend time being a clumsy one first. You can achieve anything as long as you are willing to enjoy striving for it along the way.

Management Tip of the Day: 3 Ways to Keep Your Brain in Shape

The notion that we lose brain cells as we age has thankfully been disproved. But to continue to harness your brain power on the job, you need to keep your brain cells in good shape. Here are three ways to make sure your brain stays healthy:

1. Keep working. Most modern jobs involve multi-layered thinking, problem-solving, and socializing, all of which are good exercises for the brain.
2. Seek out new ideas and people. Get out of your thinking comfort zone and search for new ideas and people that rattle established brain patterns and challenge you to think in new ways.
3. Breathe. Like the heart, the brain needs oxygen and blood flow. The current star in brain science research is exercise. So get up and move around.

Management Tip of the Day: Elevate Performance without Waiting for a Crisis

Crises often motivate people to achieve new levels of performance. Since you likely don't want to operate in crisis-mode, how can you access the hidden reserves in your company without waiting for a disaster? Tap into the three factors always present in a crisis response:

1. Urgency. People feel motivated when they know time matters. Set clear goals and clear consequences if the goals are not achieved. Don't run fire drills, however; people know false urgency when they see it.
2. Empathy. People want to feel emotionally connected to what they're doing. Show employees how their work will matter to others — their coworkers or your customers.
3. Innovation. In a crisis, there's no time or patience for red tape. Remove unnecessary organizational obstacles to being innovative. Get rid of the time-consuming processes that would be the first to go in a crisis.

Management Tip of the Day: Turn a Flaw into a Distinguishing Feature

A hotel with no AC, mosquito-filled rooms, and no room service might appear to be flawed — unless the hotel is an eco-tourism destination. Then those flaws become part of the "eco" experience. Many successful products and services sacrifice one feature (performance or style) in the name of another (simplicity, affordability, or convenience). Many customers appreciate these trade-offs. Next time you are worried about your product's flaw, think about how that imperfection can be transformed into a distinguishing feature. Find customers who appreciate what they get because of that flaw: low cost, an easy-to-use product, or a unique experience.

The new Japanese consumer

from: http://www.mckinseyquarterly.com/The_new_Japanese_consumer_2548

The attitudes and behavior of Japanese consumers are shifting dramatically, presenting opportunities and challenges for companies in the world's second-largest retail market.

MARCH 2010 • Brian Salsberg

After decades of behaving differently, Japanese consumers suddenly look a lot like their counterparts in Europe and the United States. Celebrated for their willingness to pay for quality and convenience and usually uninterested in cheaper products, Japanese consumers are now flocking to discount and online retailers. Sales of relatively affordable private-label foods have increased dramatically, and many consumers, despite small living spaces, are buying in bulk. Instead of eating out, people are entertaining at home. Workers are even packing their own lunches, sparking the nickname bento-danshi, or "box-lunch man."

This fundamental shift in the attitudes and behavior of Japanese consumers seems likely to persist, irrespective of any economic recovery. That's because the change stems not just from the recent downturn but also from deep-seated factors ranging from the digital revolution to the emergence of a less materialistic younger generation. An examination of the strategies of leading Japanese and multinational companies, along with interviews with more than two dozen executives of the most significant retail and consumer industry players, shows how consumers are changing and why (view our video interview with three of these executives, below). It also suggests the kinds of moves—such as rethinking relationships with customers and becoming more flexible about sales channels—that businesses must take to seize the opportunities created by Japan's new normal.

How Japanese consumers are changing

Japanese consumers have long been both distinctive and reassuringly predictable. Unlike their counterparts in Europe and the United States, they eschewed low-priced goods, preferring high-end department stores and pricier regional supermarkets. They were willing to pay high prices for quality products, and their love of brands sparked the emergence of a mass-luxury market where owning expensive, exclusive products seemed essential rather than aspirational. This combination helped boost the country's retail sales to an estimated ¥135 trillion ($1.48 trillion) in 2008, second only to the United States. Yet Japan's consumers are rapidly changing, in four primary ways.

Hunting for value

Japanese consumers are reducing costs and questioning their famous inclination to pay for convenience: a September 2009 MyVoice Internet survey found that 37 percent had cut overall spending, while 53 percent declared themselves more likely to "spend time to save money" rather than "spend money to save time." In apparel, high-end department stores concerned about the vanishing shopper have started leasing space within their stores to value-focused competitors such as casual-clothing chains Uniqlo and Forever 21, hoping that this will revive customer traffic. Japan's leading skin care companies are more aggressively introducing lower-priced products. Luxury-goods companies are watching a decade of growth disappear, with year-on-year sales declines of 10 to 30 percent.

What's more, sales of private-label products are booming. Experience in many North American and Western European markets suggests that once people switch to private brands, they rarely change back. Japan is in the early stages of this transition: until recently, the private-label penetration rate was just 4 percent, compared with the global average of 20 percent.¹ Japan's largest retailer, Seven & I, which operates 7-Eleven convenience stores and Ito-Yokado general-merchandising stores, expects private-label sales to grow by about 60 percent, to ¥320 billion, this fiscal year.

Spending more time at home

The Japanese used to spend little time at home, as a result of factors such as long work hours and small living quarters. Yet almost 50 percent of a representative sample of consumers across a range of age groups and geographies are now spending somewhat or significantly more time there (Exhibit 1). The suddenness of this behavioral change has prompted a term for it: sugomori, or "chicks in the nest." In fact, a September 2009 MyVoice Internet survey found that the top four ways people chose to spend their days off were surfing the Internet, watching television or reading the newspaper, sitting around the house, or listening to music. "I've seen people staying in more," said Ernest Higa, CEO of Higa Industries, which operates Domino's Pizza in Japan. "They're not going out, because of the economic crisis." (Hear more from Higa in our video interview, "Learning from the Japanese consumer—Three executive perspectives.")

Buying products differently

Japanese consumers are changing not only what they buy but also how they buy it. Long given to shopping near their homes, they are now more willing to travel. They are also deserting department stores in unprecedented numbers, preferring to spend their time in malls and stand-alone specialty shops. Asked by a March 2009 MyVoice Internet survey to explain their defection from department stores, they cited expensive products, "annoying staff," and an "inability to shop at my own pace." Consumers are favoring venues that satisfy needs beyond shopping, such as eating and entertainment.

Online shopping is central to both the economizing and the nesting trends. While Japan has one of the world's highest broadband penetration rates, it has lagged behind developed markets such as United Kingdom and the United States in the willingness of its consumers to shop online. Many explanations have been advanced for this peculiarity: Japanese consumers love the physical shopping experience; mobile-phone screens are too small; the density of retail establishments means that online shopping has less of a convenience advantage; credit card penetration is low.

Whatever the root causes, Japan has shrugged off its reluctance: according to an April 2009 MyVoice Internet survey, more than 50 percent of consumers are buying more online than they were just 12 months ago. "Mobile technologies are empowering consumers to make smarter decisions about what they buy," said Duncan Orrell-Jones, senior vice president and general manager of Disney Interactive Media (Asia-Pacific). (Hear more from Orrell-Jones in our video interview, "Learning from the Japanese consumer—Three executive perspectives.") The total online market for physical goods (excluding ticket sales and electronic downloads of media such as music, movies, and software) is estimated to be nearly $30 billion (Exhibit 2), compared with only $1.3 billion in 1999.² When Domino's, for example, launched an Internet-based home delivery service, in 2004, the company's first long-term internal target was to have 5 percent of home-delivery orders placed through it. To Higa's surprise, "over 35 percent of our sales today are through the Internet."

It's worth underscoring the tight relationship between online shopping and broader shifts in consumer behavior. In a consensus-driven society where individual choice and expression have historically been frowned upon, the ability to browse products, compare prices, and make purchases relatively anonymously is creating new attitudes and empowering consumers. An interesting example is health care, where the Japanese have traditionally been deferential to authority figures such as physicians. Yet according to a nationwide January 2009 Nomura Research Institute survey, 89 percent of Japan's people are somewhat or very interested in managing their own health care decisions.

Being health- and environment-conscious

Japan has always been perceived as one of the world's healthiest societies, thanks to a combination of lifestyle, diet, and genetics, and Japanese consumers are increasingly conscious of their health. A September 2009 MyVoice Internet survey suggests that spending on health, sports, and recreation, for example, has held up better than virtually any other retail category. One effect of the greater interest of the Japanese in directing their own health care has been the growing popularity of drugstores, which have been Japan's fastest-growing retail channel since 2000: store numbers have increased by 4 percent and sales by 8 percent.

Environmental consciousness has been emerging for some time. A survey conducted last year by the global advertising agency J. Walter Thompson found that 51 percent of Japanese consumers are somewhat or much more focused on the environment than they were a year ago; only 7 percent were less focused. A November 2009 McKinsey survey found that 84 percent of the respondents preferred to buy environmentally friendly everyday consumer products, and that preference is translating directly into business success. Consider, for example, Coca-Cola's I LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) water, whose selling points include a reduced carbon footprint: bottles are made from 12 grams of recyclable PET³ plastic (rather than the standard 26 grams) that can be twisted and compressed when recycled. I LOHAS is also bottled locally, reducing transportation costs. Less than 12 months after launch, it has become Japan's top-selling brand of single-serve bottled water.

Despite such success stories, Japanese consumers, like their counterparts in many other markets, have hard-nosed attitudes about paying for green goods and services. Just 16 percent of Japanese respondents to a recent McKinsey survey expressed a willingness to pay more for them.

Why behavior is changing

Three factors are contributing to these trends—first and most obviously, the current economic downturn. Just as European and US consumers have become more frugal, so have the Japanese. There's also a longer-term trend at work: Japan's economy has been relatively weak for nearly two decades. The changes that has wrought—such as the disappearance of life-long jobs and the increase in part-time and temporary labor—is fuelling consumer anxiety. The most recent (October 2009) J. Walter Thompson AnxietyIndex suggests that 90 percent of Japanese consumers feel anxious or nervous, the highest rate of any country in the world. While some money-saving behavioral changes (spending less, buying through different channels, going out less) stem from the downturn, it has in all likelihood primarily accelerated changes under way for some time.

Related to this anxiety is a second factor: the emergence of a new generation with radically different attitudes. This generation—people in their 20s—has grown up through Japan's difficult economic climate, never knowing the boom times the two previous ones experienced. Its lifestyle has prompted the nickname the hodo-hodo zoku, or "so-so folks" (or, even worse, "slackers" or "herbivore men"). Many shun corporate life and material possessions and are more pessimistic and more likely to be unemployed than their elders.

These young men and women present a challenge to marketers. As the CEO of a leading sports-apparel company in Japan recently said, "For the first time, we have a generation of consumers that aren't at all persuaded by what the professional athletes are wearing. We need a fundamental rethink of how to approach this next generation." In addition, these consumers tend to be more willing to spend money on services than products and on technology than other goods. In December 2008, when a goo Research Internet survey asked Japanese women aged 20 to 26 which products (of any kind) exhibited superior design, for instance, four of the top five were made by Apple, and just a handful of luxury goods made the list.

A final factor driving the change in attitudes and behavior is a series of small, largely unrelated regulatory actions. In March 2009, for example, Japan's government reduced the maximum freeway toll on weekends to ¥1,000 regardless of the distance traveled—a huge discount that encouraged trips outside Tokyo to big-box discounters and large-format retailers such as Costco and Ikea. Other examples include regulations allowing the wider sale of over-the-counter drugs; a mandate that all employees over the age of 40 (about 50 million people) take a test to determine whether they are at risk for conditions such as diabetes and high blood pressure and, if they are, requiring them to exercise and diet; and recent changes to reduce underage smoking. The Japanese government has also pushed to increase awareness of and access to health remedies, in part to address the challenge of paying to treat these conditions.

Download a PDF of the video transcript.

All these changes add up to a new playing field for domestic and international companies. Because Japanese consumer behavior is shifting closer to that of shoppers in Europe and the United States, retailers and manufacturers can look to those markets for guidance. For starters, they should place greater emphasis on generating and maintaining customer loyalty and be willing to experiment with new store formats

that better match the way consumers now shop. Companies also should embrace online shoppers for any product, from the high to the low end, given their increasing numbers. "Marketers must begin to think about digital marketing as an extension of the product itself and not just an extra piece of media," said one Japan-based chief marketing officer of a major consumer products multinational.

The shift to value has already generated some unlikely winners—McDonald's has become Japan's biggest-selling restaurant chain—and helped companies that have traditionally struggled to gain traction. Ikea has become Japan's second-biggest furniture retailer. Costco membership is at an all-time high. Wal-Mart Stores' Japanese operation, Seiyu, reported its best financial results since entering the market. Amazon.com is doing remarkably well. Non-Japanese players are enjoying unprecedented success, and local manufacturers and retailers must respond proactively. Some are thriving—furniture group Nitori has excelled in a down market, as has online retailer Rakuten—but others may need to seek mergers to reduce operational costs and remain competitive, or partner with major retailers to bypass wholesalers and middlemen.

One thing is certain: the world's second-largest consumer market is changing as Japanese consumers increasingly resemble their Western peers. For Western companies that have long regarded selling in Japan as not only different but also difficult, this may be welcome news indeed.

About the Author

Brian Salsberg is a principal in McKinsey's Tokyo office.

The author would like to acknowledge the contributions of Tomoko Hibino-Niitani and Todd Guild to this article.

物联网

from: http://china.mckinseyquarterly.com/The_Internet_of_Things_2538

更多物品中被嵌入传感器，从而获得了通讯能力。由此构成的信息网络能够创造新的业务模式，改进业务流程，并降低成本和风险。

2010年3月 • Michael Chui, Markus Löffler, and Roger Roberts

在大多数组织中，信息都是沿着熟悉的路径传播。专有的信息存储在数据库里，并在报告中对其进行分析，然后沿着管理链逐级上报。信息还可以源于外部——从公共来源收集信息，从互联网获取信息，或者从信息供应商那里购买信息。

但是，可以预见的信息传播途径正在发生变化：物质世界本身正在成为一种信息系统。在这种称为物联网的信息系统中，嵌入各种实物——从公路路面到心脏起搏器——之中的传感器和致动装置，通过有线和无线网络，并通常利用与联接互联网同样的互联网协议（IP）彼此联接。这些网络生成大量数据，并流入计算机中进行分析。当物品既可以感知环境，又可以相互通讯时，它们就成为能了解复杂性，并迅速对其做出响应的工具。在所有这一切中，具有革命性意义的是，这些实物信息系统现在正开始被部署运用，它们有的甚至可在基本无人干预的情况下工作。

形如药丸的微型摄像机已能穿过人体的消化道，并传回数千幅图像，以查明疾病的来源。与遥感卫星和地面传感器收集的数据无线联接的精密农机设备，可以考虑作物的生长条件，并调整农田各个不同部分的种植方式——例如，对那些需要更多营养的地块增加施肥量。在日本，广告牌可以对路过的行人进行观察，评估他们符合哪种消费者特征，并根据这些评估结果马上改变显示的广告内容。

确实，在一些物联网中，有着未来发展的蛛丝马迹，也有对企业的早期预警。随着创造价值新方式的出现，主要基于当今静态信息架构的业务模式面临着挑战。当一位消费者的购买偏好在一个特定地点被实时感知到时，动态定价也许会增加购买的可能性。知道了一种产品的使用频率或使用强度，就可以创造更多的选择——例如，可以对产品收取使用费，而不是直接出售。通过在制造流程中密布大量传感器，就能实现更精确的控制，提高生产效率。当对运营环境中的危险因素持续不断地进行监测，或物品本身可以采取纠正措施，以避免损害发生时，就能降低风险和成本。充分利用这些能力的企业要比不这样做的竞争对手处于更有利的地位。

物联网的广泛应用尚需时日，但是，由于其支撑技术的不断完善，这一天正渐行渐近。无线网络技术的进步，以及通讯协议的进一步标准化，使人们有可能在几乎任何时间和任何地点，通过这些传感器采集数据。为此，越来越小的硅芯片正在获得越来越强大的能力，同时，遵循摩尔定律的发展模式，其成本却在不断下降。大量增加的存储和运算能力（其中一些是通过云计算实现的）使得有可能以极大的规模和不断降低的成本进行数据处理。

对于科技型企业和处在技术应用前沿的企业来说，这些都已经不是新闻。但是，随着这些技术日趋成熟，企业运用这些技术的范围将会扩大。现在，对于各行各业的企业高管来说，构建自己关于物联网可能带来的潜在影响和机遇的思路正当其时。我们注意到，正在出现6种各具特色的应用类型，它们分属两个主要门类：第一类是信息与分析；第二类是自动化与控制（见图表）。

信息与分析

当利用新的网络把来自产品、企业资产或运营环境的数据联接起来时，它们就会生成更有用的信息和分析，从而可以大大改进决策。一些组织已经开始在目标领域里部署这些应用，而一些更具革命性、要求更高的应用仍然处于概念或实验阶段。

1. 跟踪行为

当在产品中嵌入传感器后，企业就可以跟踪这些产品的运动，甚至监测与它们的互动。利用这些行为数据，就可以对业务模式进行精确调整。例如，一些保险公司主动提出在客户的汽车上安装位置传感器，从而使这些企业能根据一辆汽车的驾驶方式以及行驶去向，确定其保单价格。保单的定价可以依据驾驶一辆汽车的实际风险，而不是基于一些代用指标（如司机的年龄、性别或居住地）来定制。

或者，考虑将传感器和网络连接嵌入一辆租赁汽车的可能性：可以将其短期租借给一家汽车服务机构的登记会员，而租车中心已变得没有必要，可以对每辆汽车的使用情况进行优化安排，以获取更高收入。Zipcar汽车共享服务公司已率先采用了这种租车模式，而一些更成熟的汽车租赁公司也纷纷开始跟进。在零售业，能记录购物者特征数据（存储在他们的会员卡上）的传感器，可以通过在销售点提供额外的信息，或提供价格折扣，帮助促成购买。一些零售市场领军企业，如特易购（Tesco），在这些应用方面一马当先。

在企业对企业（B2B）市场上，物联网的一种众所周知的应用包括，当通过供应链运送产品时，利用传感器跟踪安放在产品上的RFID（无线射频识别）标签，从而改进库存管理，同时降低运营资金和物流成本。可能使用货物跟踪技术的范围正在不断扩大。在航空业，传感器技术正在催生各种新的业务模式。喷气发动机制造商可以保有其产品的所有权，同时根据航空公司所使用的发动机动力向其收取费用。飞机制造商正在建造带有网络传感器的机身，这些传感器可以向自己的电脑不断发送产品磨损和开裂的数据，从而可以主动进行维护保养，并减少非计划检修时间。

2. 增强对环境的认知

从部署在基础设施（如道路和建筑物）或报告环境条件（包括土壤湿度、洋流或天气）的大量传感器中所获得的数据，可以增强决策者对实时事件的认知，尤其是当这些传感器与先进的显示或可视化技术一起使用时，更是如此。

例如，保安人员可以使用与视频、音频和振动探测器相结合的传感器网络，发现未经授权擅闯禁区的人员。一些先进的安全系统已经采用了这些技术的一些要素，而随着传感器变得体积更小、功能更强大，软件系统变得更善于分析和显示获取的信息，人们正在计划更深入而广泛的应用。航空公司和货运企业的物流管理人员已在利用一些初步的功能，获取有关天气条件、交通状况以及车辆位置的实时信息。这样，这些管理人员就能增强其不断调整运输路径的能力，从而降低交通拥堵代价，提高网络的有效能力。在另一种应用中，执法人员可以获得来自声波传感器的瞬时数据，根据这些数据就能定位开枪的位置。

3. 传感器驱动的决策分析

物联网还可以支持更广泛、更复杂的人力规划和决策。技术要求——与先进的软件系统相联接的庞大存储和计算资源，这种软件系统可将分析数据生成各种图形显示——也相应提高。

例如，在石油和天然气行业，下一阶段的油气勘探和开发可以依靠广泛安放在地壳中的传感器网络，来提供潜在油气田的位置、结构和储量规模数据，这些数据比用现有数据驱动方法获得的数据更准确。其回报是：降低开发成本，提高原油产量。

至于零售业，一些企业正在研究如何收集和处理成千上万购物者逛商店过程中产生的数据。传感器读数和视频摄像会记录购物者在各个商品展区逗留多长时间，并记录他们最终购买了什么商品。根据这些数据进行模拟演示，将有助于通过优化零售布局来提高销售收入。

在医疗卫生领域，传感器和数据联网提供了以相对较低的成本，实时监测病人行为和症状的可能性，使医生能够更好地诊断疾病，并制订专门的治疗方案。例如，在目前正在进行的少数医疗试验中，为慢性病患者配备了传感器，从而可以持续不断地监测他们在日常活动中的身体状况。其中一项试验招收了一些患有充血性心力衰竭症的病人。这些病人通常只有在医生定期上门巡诊时才能监测其体重、血压、心率和心律。而现在，安放在病人身上的传感器可以持续不断地远程监测病人的许多生理迹象，可以向医务人员发出病人身体状况的早期预警，否则，就可能导致意外的住院治疗和昂贵的急诊抢救。在美国，仅仅通过对充血性心力衰竭患者进行更好的管理，每年就能减少10亿美元的住院治疗和急诊费用。

自动化与控制

将数据作为自动化和控制的基础，意味着将通过物联网收集的数据和分析转换为可通过网络反馈给执行机构的指令，然后由执行机构来改变流程。形成从数据到自动操作的闭环控制系统，可以提高生产率，因为有了这些可对复杂情况进行自动调节的系统，就使许多人工干预变得没有必要。较早采纳这些技术的企业正在引入一些比较基本的应用，这些应用提供了立竿见影的回报。随着这些技术的进一步发展，先进的自动化系统将会被各种组织所采用。

1. 流程优化

物联网正在开辟改进工艺流程的新领域。在一些行业（如化工生产），正在安装大批传感器，以实现更大范围的监测。这些传感器将数据送入电脑，由电脑对其进行分析，然后向执行机构发出信号，由其对工艺流程进行调整——例如，改变混合物成分、温度或压力。当一个实物工件沿着产品装配线运动时，还可以利用传感器和制动器使其改变位置，以确保其到达机床的最佳位置（在加工中，工作位置的很小偏差都可能造成故障，乃至损坏机床）。在整个生产流程中，这种经过改进的调整操作要增加数百次，从而可以大大降低损耗、能源成本和人工干预。

例如，在纸浆和造纸行业，由于需要对石灰窑炉的温度频繁进行手动调节，限制了生产率的提高。一家企业通过使用嵌入式温度传感器，利用其采集的数据自动调节窑炉火焰的形状和强度，从而将生产率提高了5％。由于将温度的变化减小到接近于零，提高了产品质量，而且消除了操作人员对生产过程频繁进行干预的必要性。

2. 优化资源消耗

利用网络化的传感器和自动反馈机制（往往通过提高动态定价能力的方式），可以改变对稀缺资源（包括能源和水资源）的使用模式。例如，一些公用事业公司，如意大利的Enel公司和美国的太平洋天然气和电力公司（PG＆E），正在部署"智能"电表，这种电表可以为住宅和工业用户提供表明用电量和实时电费的可视显示。（传统的住宅用电按每度固定价格计费掩盖了一个事实，即在一整天之中，发电成本存在很大差异。）基于分时定价和更清晰的信息，住宅用户可以在高峰时段关闭空调或推迟使用洗碗机。商业客户则可以将能源密集型的流程和生产从高电价的用电高峰时段转换到低电价的非用电高峰时段。

作为全球能源需求增长最快的细分市场之一，数据中心也开始采用与信息反馈联系在一起的用电管理技术。电力消耗往往占到一台典型设备使用期间全部费用的一半，但大多数管理者对设备的耗能模式缺乏详细认识。获得这种认识并非易事，因为根据不同的工作负荷，服务器耗电量达到峰值的时间也有所不同。此外，许多服务器都是每周7天、每天24 小时开机运行，但大部分是在最小负荷状态下使用，因为它们都依赖于各种特定的运行方式。制造商已经开发出能监测每台服务器用电情况的传感器，并采用了能平衡计算负荷、以及可取消未充分利用的服务器和存储设备的软件。格林菲尔德数据中心已经采用了这项技术，在几年之内，该技术有可能成为数据中心基础设施的标准配置。

3. 复杂自治系统

要求最严格的物联网应用涉及对不可预知的环境条件，以及由自动化系统引导的瞬时响应进行快速、实时探测。这种机器决策模仿人类的反应，尽管是在大大提高了的性能水平上。例如，汽车行业正在加紧开发能够检测到即将发生的碰撞，并采取避让动作的系统。在高档汽车中，采用了一些基本的应用技术（如自动刹车系统）。通过更广泛地部署这些技术，每年因减少潜在的交通事故而节省的成本就可能超过1,000亿美元。一些企业和研究机构正在试验某种形式的汽车自动驾驶仪，它可驱使网络化汽车按照协同模式，以高速公路的速度行驶。这项技术将会减少"幽灵拥堵"的数量，这种交通拥堵是由一些很小的干扰因素（如突然亮起的刹车灯）引起的，它会引起连锁反应，进而形成交通堵塞瓶颈。

在其他一些行业，科学家正在试验利用大批机器人来维修设备或清理有毒废弃物，而国防部门正在研究的一些系统将能协调指挥无人驾驶机群的飞行。尽管这些自治系统面临着研究开发和不断完善的挑战，但它们能在提高安全性、降低风险和成本上带来巨大的效益。这些实验还可以激发有关如何在人类难以到达或高度危险的恶劣自然环境中（如深海、战场和受污染地区）完成任务的新思维。

下一步如何发展？

物联网具有巨大的发展前景，然而，在这些系统被广泛接受之前，还必须解决商业上、政策上和技术上的各种挑战。率先采用物联网的企业必须证明，这种以传感器驱动的新型业务模式能够创造卓越的价值。行业团体和政府监管部门应该研究有关数据保密和数据安全的规则，尤其是对涉及到敏感的消费者信息的数据使用。政府、企业和风险分析专家必须与保险公司一起，制定针对自动化系统错误决定的法律责任框架。在技术方面，必须将传感器和执行机构的成本降低到能激励人们广泛使用的水平。必须不断提高联网技术以及对其提供支持的标准水平，使数据能在传感器、计算机和执行机构之间自由流动。汇总和分析数据的软件，以及图形显示技术的水平也必须提高，使海量数据能被人类决策者所理解，或能对其进行综合分析，以更恰当地指导自动化系统工作。

在企业内部，信息模式的巨大变革将对组织结构，以及决策方式、运营管理和流程构建产生影响。例如，产品开发将需要反映获取和分析信息的更大可能性。

企业现在就可以开始采取行动，通过采用新技术，优化那些传统方式无法带来理想回报的业务流程，奠定自己在这些变革中的地位。提高能效和优化流程是很不错的初期目标。应该在开发实验室对各种新兴技术进行实验，并进行小规模试点，一些老牌企业可以寻求与为目标行业创建物联网能力的创新技术提供商建立合作伙伴关系。

作者简介：

Michael Chui是麦肯锡全球研究院资深研究员；Markus Löffler是麦肯锡斯图加特分公司董事；Roger Roberts是麦肯锡硅谷分公司董事。

作者谨向麦肯锡同事Naveen Sastry，James Manyika和Jacques Bughin对本文的重要贡献致谢。

中国对互联网的痴迷

from http://china.mckinseyquarterly.com/Chinas_Internet_obsession_2546

在中国最大的60个城市中，人们把自己70%的闲暇时间都花在上网冲浪上。其结果可能是消费市场地震式的变化。

2010年3月 • 安宏宇　马思默

假如谷歌今天退出中国，究竟会留下多大（或多小）的市场空间？今年1月，中国的官方域名注册和研究机构——中国互联网络信息中心报告说，到2009年底，中国的互联网用户数已经达到3.84亿，比美国的人口总数还要多。这一数字比2008年增长了大约50％。此外，有2.33亿中国人——比上一年增加了一倍——用手持设备上网，这部分是因为中国的移动通讯运营商去年开始广泛提供3G服务。

中国人沉迷于互联网。根据我们在2009年进行的一项调查，在中国最大的60个城市中，人们把自己大约70％的闲暇时间都花在互联网上。而在小城镇中，相应的数字为50％。个人电脑正在迅速取代作为娱乐中心的电视机，一谈起谁登录互联网，以及上网多长时间，人们就激动不已。例如，在中国西北地区的一个小城市，一位男性告诉我们，因使用电脑而引起的家庭纠纷已变得难以收拾，以至于他的妻子和他商量是否要花一大笔钱（对他们而言）另外再买一台电脑——否则，就只好申请离婚。最终，他们购买了第二台电脑，并挽救了自己的婚姻。

中国人使用互联网，更多是为了娱乐——玩网络游戏、网上聊天、下载音乐和电影，以及网上购物——而不是为了工作。中国人非常注意网友对产品的评论意见。在年龄为18～44岁的消费者中，有1/5的人在没有首先上互联网研究一番的情况下，不会轻易购买一种产品或服务。他们在拍卖网站（如淘宝网）上在线购物，用预付费的淘宝卡支付购买的产品和服务，邮局收取少量代办费而销售这种购物卡。去年，中国电子商务的销售额翻了一番以上。

毫不奇怪，中国和外国面向消费者的企业，都纷纷对互联网营销大量投资。网络广告一直在以每年20％～30％的速度增长——是印刷媒体增长率的两倍——去年，网络广告的市场规模约为30亿美元（200亿元人民币）。

那些创建微型网站或举办在线活动的企业通常会发现，中国的消费者会以张贴评论、图片和视频的方式热情地做出回应。例如，诺基亚公司与优酷网（一家主要的视频内容网站）合作，举办了一个网上音乐会，并联合土豆网（另一个在线视频网站），举行了一次问答比赛，访问者有机会赢取100万元人民币的大奖。在这两次活动中，数以百万计的用户访问了诺基亚手持通讯设备的内容。最近，雀巢公司联合优酷网和开心网（一个社交网站），发起了一次宣传雀巢咖啡的在线活动。这家瑞士跨国企业正在网上展播一段时长5分钟、名为"《咖啡间疯云》（Camera Café）"的视频，内容是一些办公室工作人员工休时喝咖啡的对话。

2008年5月四川发生大地震后，市场营销人员意识到了互联网影响人们看法的能力。捐款数额巨大的企业受到广泛赞誉，而捐助不多的企业则饱受诟病。事实上，王老吉（一种凉茶品牌）变得全国知名的部分原因，是其地震后在网上广为流传的口号："要捐就捐1个亿，要喝就喝王老吉"。

许多企业持续跟踪在中国的在线聊天内容，不断询问博客作者对企业和产品都说了些什么？我们正在网上引起积极正面的评价吗？我们如何才能抢占先机，妥善处理在几小时内就能传遍整个博客世界的抨击？他们利用像网络口碑研究咨询服务公司（CIC）、中文网站联盟和大旗网（Daqi.com）这样的中介机构，跟踪网上舆论，联系对企业表示不满的消费者¹。这种做法可能存在争议；一些中介机构被指责伪造假评论，但许多机构声称，他们严格遵守美国口碑营销协会的道德准则。一些外国企业邀请一些有影响力的中文博客作者访问其海外办事处和工厂，而另一些企业则参与网上公告栏的对话交流，以澄清谣言和解决问题，同时，它们还从网上收集消费者的洞见。

由于互联网的发展，中国的消费市场可能会发生地震式的变化——我们并不仅仅是在谈论这样一个事实：5千万中国人可能很快就不得不停止使用他们喜爱的谷歌搜索引擎。在中国的虎年，跟踪这些变化，制定数字营销的内容，将是我们的当务之急。密切关注这一领域。

作者简介：

安宏宇（Yuval Atsmon）是麦肯锡上海分公司副董事，马思默（Max Magni）是该分公司董事。

本文首次发表在2010年2月24日的哈佛商业评论上。

一个国家，多个市场 ——用麦肯锡城市群方法瞄准中国消费者

用麦肯锡城市群（ClusterMap）方法，去区别对待中国的不同城市，将800多个中国城市划分为若干个城市群，关注它们在收入水平、地理位置、城市间的经济联系和贸易往来诸多方面的区别和差异、以及城市中消费者共同的消费态度和偏好等。

2010年3月 • 安宏宇　狄维瑞　马思默

广州和深圳有着很多共性，但这两座同处一省、驾车距离仅为3小时的城市在人口构成、语言和消费者偏好等方面的差别却不亚于法国和德国之间的差异。深圳居民中，4/5为外来务工人员，大多数年龄在35岁以下，他们说普通话或自己的方言，习惯在酒吧喝一杯。而在邻近的广州，外来人口只占1/4，人口年龄偏高，主要说广东话，习惯于与家人一起去餐馆喝茶。

很少有跨国公司会在法国和德国市场运用同样的策略，但似乎很多公司在中国却正是这么做的。它们专注于培植最大的市场（北京、上海等一线城市，以及类似南京的较大的二线城市），而忽略了中国数以百计的城市之间的差别。

中国的市场如此之大、各地增长的速度如此千差万别，对它们进行优先排序是不二的选择。中国的800多个城市中有200多个人口超过100万（在整个欧洲，人口超100万的城市只有35个）¹。另外，中国还有数百个人口在10万级的城市。

现在，很多在华公司对中国城市仍采用逐个管理的方法。然而，通过总结它们的工作经验，以及我们对中国消费者的研究²，我们发现了一种更有效且更合算的管理方法，即麦肯锡城市群（ClusterMap）方法：它不再按照简单的城市层级和地理区域来划分中国城市，而将800多个中国城市划分为若干个城市群。这些城市群少则包括2个城市，多则包括约70个邻近的城市。决定城市群的不只是其收入水平和地理位置，还包括城市之间的经济联系和贸易往来，以及城市中消费者共同的消费态度和偏好。

用麦肯锡城市群（ClusterMap）方法能帮助企业定义战略愿景、优化资源配置，跟踪业绩。与逐个管理城市的方法相比，用城市分群的方式更能在广阔地域范围内实现销售队伍、分销渠道、供应链以及营销的协同效应，更有实效性和成本效益。同时，比起将中国城市简单分成几个地区的做法，用城市分群的方式能将工作做得更细。

Read more @ http://china.mckinseyquarterly.com/One_Country_Many_Markets_2547