Is This Why TED Talks Seem So Convincing?

from: http://priceonomics.com/is-this-why-ted-talks-seem-so-convincing/

The speakers at TED conferences give the type of presentations that public speaking coaches use as examples of effective presentation skills. They open with arresting images or stories that engage the audience, speak clearly and passionately, and illustrate each of their points with concise evidence or examples.

TED Talks are also slick productions. The lighting is as well done as a rock concert’s, cameras film from a variety of angles to keep viewers visually engaged, and the length is never so long as to drain an audience’s attention span.

At the end of a TED talk, this author often feels inspired and enlightened, patting himself on the back for spending 10 minutes improving his mind instead of watching sitcom reruns. But according to a study performed by a group of psychologists, the degree to which a TED audience feels newly educated may be partly illusory - the result of showmanship as much as actual learning. 

In their study “Appearances Can Be Deceiving,” a team of psychologists had students watch recorded lectures explaining why Calico cats are almost always female. (It's essentially a genetics lesson, as the answer has to do with how the calico fur pattern is linked to X chromosomes.) One group saw a lecturer who presented with the skills of a TED speaker. The other watched the lecturer read haltingly from notes. 

Afterwards the students answered questions about how much they felt they had learned. As expected, students who had watched the lecturer with better presentation skills expected to remember more of the material, believed that they understood the material better, and rated their interest and motivation more highly than the students who watched the dud instructor. 

The twist came when the students took a test that investigated their memory and understanding of the Calico cats concept. The students who watched the skillful (or “fluent”) lecturer barely outperformed the students who watched the “disfluent speaker.” But they did much poorer than they expected to do, whereas the other group did about as well as they expected. 

The lesson to take away is probably not that presentation skills don’t matter in teaching. The study only looked at one concept of medium difficulty presented in a single recorded lecture. But it does suggest that the confidence and fluidity of a skillful presenter can lead us to be overconfident in our predictions of how much we learned and how easily we can understand the concept being explained. Implicitly, a savvy presentation sells you on the idea that you've learned a lot as much as it actually informs you.

So the next time you watch a TED Talk, ask yourself whether you can explain the concept clearly, and whether its logic holds up outside the nice lighting and well-timed applause. It’s all too easy to be carried away by a skillful presentation into believing that you’ve learned more than you really have.

10 Benefits of Reading: Why You Should Read Every Day

from: http://www.lifehack.org/articles/lifestyle/10-benefits-reading-why-you-should-read-everyday.html?utm_source=feedly

When was the last time you read a book, or a substantial magazine article? Do your daily reading habits center around tweets, Facebook updates, or the directions on your instant oatmeal packet? If you're one of countless people who don't make a habit of reading regularly, you might be missing out: reading has a significant number of benefits, and just a few benefits of reading are listed below.

1. Mental Stimulation

Studies have shown that staying mentally stimulated can slow the progress of (or possibly even prevent) Alzheimer's and Dementia, since keeping your brain active and engaged prevents it from losing power. Just like any other muscle in the body, the brain requires exercise to keep it strong and healthy, so the phrase "use it or lose it" is particularly apt when it comes to your mind. Doing puzzles and playing games such as chess have also been found to be helpful with cognitive stimulation.

2. Stress Reduction

No matter how much stress you have at work, in your personal relationships, or countless other issues faced in daily life, it all just slips away when you lose yourself in a great story. A well-written novel can transport you to other realms, while an engaging article will distract you and keep you in the present moment, letting tensions drain away and allowing you to relax.

3. Knowledge

Everything you read fills your head with new bits of information, and you never know when it might come in handy. The more knowledge you have, the better-equipped you are to tackle any challenge you'll ever face.

Additionally, here's a bit of food for thought: should you ever find yourself in dire circumstances, remember that although you might lose everything else—your job, your possessions, your money, even your health—knowledge can never be taken from you.

4.Vocabulary Expansion

This goes with the above topic: the more you read, the more words you gain exposure to, and they'll inevitably make their way into your everyday vocabulary. Being articulate and well-spoken is of great help in any profession, and knowing that you can speak to higher-ups with self-confidence can be an enormous boost to your self-esteem. It could even aid in your career, as those who are well-read, well-spoken, and knowledgeable on a variety of topics tend to get promotions more quickly (and more often) than those with smaller vocabularies and lack of awareness of literature, scientific breakthroughs, and global events.

Reading books is also vital for learning new languages, as non-native speakers gain exposure to words used in context, which will ameliorate their own speaking and writing fluency.

5. Memory Improvement

When you read a book, you have to remember an assortment of characters, their backgrounds, ambitions, history, and nuances, as well as the various arcs and sub-plots that weave their way through every story. That's a fair bit to remember, but brains are marvellous things and can remember these things with relative ease. Amazingly enough, every new memory you create forges new synapses (brain pathways) and strengthens existing ones, which assists in short-term memory recall as well as stabilizing moods. How cool is that?

6. Stronger Analytical Thinking Skills

Have you ever read an amazing mystery novel, and solved the mystery yourself before finishing the book? If so, you were able to put critical and analytical thinking to work by taking note of all the details provided and sorting them out to determine "whodunnit".

That same ability to analyze details also comes in handy when it comes to critiquing the plot; determining whether it was a well-written piece, if the characters were properly developed, if the storyline ran smoothly, etc. Should you ever have an opportunity to discuss the book with others, you'll be able to state your opinions clearly, as you've taken the time to really consider all the aspects involved.

7. Improved Focus and Concentration

In our internet-crazed world, attention is drawn in a million different directions at once as we multi-task through every day. In a single 5-minute span, the average person will divide their time between working on a task, checking email, chatting with a couple of people (via gchat, skype, etc.), keeping an eye on twitter, monitoring their smartphone, and interacting with co-workers. This type of ADD-like behaviour causes stress levels to rise, and lowers our productivity.

When you read a book, all of your attention is focused on the story—the rest of the world just falls away, and you can immerse yourself in every fine detail you're absorbing. Try reading for 15-20 minutes before work (i.e. on your morning commute, if you take public transit), and you'll be surprised at how much more focused you are once you get to the office.

8. Better Writing Skills

This goes hand-in-hand with the expansion of your vocabulary: exposure to published, well-written work has a noted effect on one's own writing, as observing the cadence, fluidity, and writing styles of other authors will invariably influence your own work. In the same way that musicians influence one another, and painters use techniques established by previous masters, so do writers learn how to craft prose by reading the works of others.

9. Tranquility

In addition to the relaxation that accompanies reading a good book, it's possible that the subject you read about can bring about immense inner peace and tranquility. Reading spiritual texts can lower blood pressure and bring about an immense sense of calm, while reading self-help books has been shown to help people suffering from certain mood disorders and mild mental illnesses.

10. Free Entertainment

Though many of us like to buy books so we can annotate them and dog-ear pages for future reference, they can be quite pricey. For low-budget entertainment, you can visit your local library and bask in the glory of the countless tomes available there for free. Libraries have books on every subject imaginable, and since they rotate their stock and constantly get new books, you'll never run out of reading materials.

If you happen to live in an area that doesn't have a local library, or if you're mobility-impaired and can't get to one easily, most libraries have their books available in PDF or ePub format so you can read them on your e-reader, iPad, or your computer screen. There are also many sources online where you can download free e-books, so go hunting for something new to read!

There's a reading genre for every literate person on the planet, and whether your tastes lie in classical literature, poetry, fashion magazines, biographies, religious texts, young adult books, self-help guides, street lit, or romance novels, there's something out there to capture your curiosity and imagination. Step away from your computer for a little while, crack open a book, and replenish your soul for a little while.

Three Ways to Stop Procrastination

Procrastination may feel like the human condition, but it doesn’t have to. To get out of your own way and increase your productivity, try these three tactics:

• Set deadlines. Create a schedule with clear due dates for each task. Remind yourself by using visual cues: Set reminders in your calendar, add items to your to-do list, or put a sticky note on your computer screen.
• Ask for help. Ask a trusted colleague to review your work. Knowing that she’s expecting it can spur you to get started.
• Change your mind-set. Stop thinking of yourself as a procrastinator. See yourself — and talk about yourself with others — as someone who gets things done.

Adapted from the Guide to Getting the Right Work Done.

Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/10/19/three-ways-to-stop-procrastination/#ixzz2A2qshg00

Want to Read Faster? Stop Saying The Words in Your Head As You Read

When you read, do you hear the words in your mind or even subconsciously say them under your breath? Break this one habit, called subvocalization, and you can double or even triple your reading speed.

When you say the words as you read them, you can't read any faster than you can talk.

Spreeder, a web app that teaches speed reading, offers this tip to quiet the little voice in our heads that slows us down when we read: Keep your mouth occupied.

One simple way is to preoccupy your mouth. When you give your mouth something else to do while you read, you can disengage the speech mechanism in the brain, allowing what your read to go straight to your conscious awareness rather than being slowed down by your brain needing to figure out how to say the words first.

So chew some gum, hum, or eat lunch while reading and you may find yourself going through a ton of reading material like never before.

How to Read Faster by Eliminating Subvocalization | Spreeder

from Lifehackr (source)

A good analysis from Business Insider on unemployment rate

The best news for President Obama is that the unemployment rate has steadily fallen in an election year, and had a big drop today.

At a campaign event today, Mitt Romney sought to play down the significance of these numbers.

Buzzfeed has Romney's quote:

"The unemployment rate as you noted this year has come down very, very slowly, but it’s come down none the less. The reason it’s come down this year is primarily due to the fact that more and more people have just stopped looking for work. And if you just dropped out of the work force, if you just give up and say look I can’t go back to work I’m just going to stay home, if you just drop out all together why you’re not longer part of the employment statistics so it looks like unemployment is getting better, but the truth is, if the same share of people were participating in the workforce today as on the day the president got elected, our unemployment rate would be around 11 percent."

So is Romney correct?

Is the reason that unemployment has come down due to more and more people leaving the work force?

To answer this question, we first require a clear definition of how the unemployment is calculated.

Essentially, the unemployment rate is derived using the Civilian Employment Level (how many people have jobs) and the size of the Civilian Labor Force (how many people could have jobs).

Specifically to recreate the number we take the following equation: [1-(Civilian Employment/Civilian Labor Force]*100.

Here's a long-term chart of the above equation.

As you can see, the chart is identical to the actual chart of the Unemployment Rate:

Now that you know the two inputs, you know that there are two ways that the unemployment rate could fall: The total level of Civilian Employment could rise or the Civilian Labor Force could fall.

Romney is saying that the drop has mostly been about the latter, a fall in the Civilian Labor Force (the number of potential workers out there).

So how do we test Romney's theory?

Here you need to be introduced to the concept of the Labor Force Participation Rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate is simply, the size of the Civilian Labor Force (number of potential workers) divided by the Civilian Population.

A chart of that looks like this.

FRED

Just to confirm that this is indeed the Labor Force Participation Rate, here's a straight up chart of that number.

So to judge Romney we have to ask the question: If the participation rate were the same today as it was at the beginning of the year, what would the unemployment rate look like?

So let's work backwards.

Here's a year-to-date chart of the participation rate. It has fallen from 64% last December to 63.6% today.

So, if the Civilian Participation Rate were still 64% today, to derive what the Civilian Labor Force would be today, we'd take 0.64 and multiply by that by today's Civilian Population.

The Civilian Population today is 243.772 million. That times 0.64 is 156.014 million. That would be the size of the Civilian Labor Force today if the participation rate were still where it was after the December jobs report.

Now as we showed above, to figure out the unemployment rate we have to go back and find the current size of the Civilian Employment Level.

According to today's report, the Civilian Employment Level is 142.974 million.

The unemployment rate is thus [1-(142.974/156.014)]*100. That works out to 8.35 or 8.35%.

In other words, if the Civilian Participation Rate had stayed constant this year, today's level of employment would translate to 8.35% unemployment.

Last December's unemployment rate was 8.5%.

So Romney said specifically:

The reason it’s come down this year is primarily due to the fact that more and more people have just stopped looking for work

The above analysis shows he's correct. Whereas the headline unemployment rate has dropped from 8.5% to 7.8% this year, if there were the same number of people looking for work today, as there were in December 2011, the unemployment rate would have only dropped from 8.5% to 8.35% today.

Now there is one more catch here, which is that there are two main reasons the Civilian Participation Rate can decline. One is discouragement (people just totally dropping out, going to live on a relative's couch, or something like that) and one is demographics, basically more people retiring. It's widely believed that the participation rate was always going to be on the down slope now, merely due to America's aging workforce, and more people going into retirement.

But that's a different debate, and either way, both technically fall into Romney's words: Both represent people who have stopped looking for work.

Two other quick things to note: One is that this has nothing to do with the latest September jobs data. In fact, the participation rate jumped up, and the payroll gains appear to be quite legitimate. Second of all, job creation has been part of it, so it's not ALL demographics.

But bottom line: At the level of today's Civilian Employment, if we still had the same potential size of the labor force as we did at the start of the year (which is what Romney is saying), the drop in the official Unemployment Rate would have been quite small.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-unemployment-rate-has-fallen-in-2012-2012-10#ixzz28UMVndJr

Words of Wisdom by the late Barton Biggs

I only recall meeting Barton Biggs once (via a Green room somewhere), but his legend preceded him.

This list of quotes (Thanks J!) should give you a solid basis as to his thought process and investment philosophy:

* “Good information, thoughtful analysis, quick but not impulsive reactions, and knowledge of the historic interaction between companies, sectors, countries, and asset classes under similar circumstances in the past are all important ingredients in getting the legendary ‘it’ right that we all strive so desperately for.”

* “[T]here are no relationships or equations that always work. Quantitatively based solutions and asset-allocation equations invariably fail as they are designed to capture what would have worked in the previous cycle whereas the next one remains a riddle wrapped in an enigma. The successful macro investor must be some magical mixture of an acute analyst, an investment scholar, a listener, a historian, a river boat gambler, and be a voracious reader.Reading is crucial. Charlie Munger, a great investor and a very sagacious old guy, said it best: ‘I have said that in my whole life, I have known no wise person, over a broad subject matter who didn’t read all the time — none, zero. Now I know all kinds of shrewd people who by staying within a narrow area do very well without reading. But investment is a broad area. So if you think you’re going to be good at it and not read all the time you have a different idea than I do.’”

* “[T]he investment process is only half the battle. The other weighty component is struggling with yourself, and immunizing yourself from the psychological effects of the swings of markets, career risk, the pressure of benchmarks, competition, and the loneliness of the long distance runner.”

* “I’ve come to believe a personal investment diary is a step in the right direction in coping with these pressures, in getting to know yourself and improving your investment behavior.”

* “As I reflect on this crisis period so stuffed with opportunity but also so full of pain and terror, I am struck with how hard it is to be an investor and a fiduciary.”

* “The history of the world is one of progress, and as a congenital optimist, I believe in equities. Fundamentally, in the long run, you want to be an owner, not a lender. However, you always have to bear in mind that this time truly may be different as Reinhart and Rogoff so eloquently preach. Remember the 1930s, Japan in the late 1990s, and then, of course, as Rogoff said once with a sly smile, there is that period of human history known as ‘The Dark Ages and it lasted three hundred years.’”

* “Mr. Market is a manic depressive with huge mood swings, and you should bet against him, not with him, particularly when he is raving.”

* “As investors, we also always have to be aware of our innate and very human tendency to be fighting the last war. We forget that Mr. Market is an ingenious sadist, and that he delights in torturing us in different ways.”

* “Buffett, a man, like me, who believes in America and the Tooth Fairy, presents the dilemma best. It’s as though you are in business with a partner who has a bi-polar personality. When your partner is deeply distressed, depressed, and in a dark mood and offers to sell his share of the business at a huge discount, you should buy it. When he is ebullient and optimistic and wants to buy your share from you at an exorbitant premium, you should oblige him. As usual, Buffett makes it sound easier than it is because measuring the level of intensity of the mood swings of your bipolar partner is far from an exact science.”

* “Fifty some years ago, Sir Alec Cairncross doodled it best:

A trend is a trend is a trend
But the question is, will it bend?
Will it alter its course
Through some unforeseen force
And come to a premature end?

* “Nations, institutions, and individuals always have had and still have a powerful tendency to prepare themselves to fight the last war.”

* “[W]hat’s the moral of this story? Know thyself and know thy foibles. Study the history of your emotions and your actions.”

* “At the extreme moments of fear and greed, the power of the daily price momentum and the mood and passions of ‘the crowd’ are tremendously important psychological influences on you. It takes a strong, self-confident, emotionally mature person to stand firm against disdain, mockery, and repudiation when the market itself seems to be absolutely confirming that you are both mad and wrong.”

* “Also, be obsessive in making sure your facts are right and that you haven’t missed or misunderstood something. Beware of committing to mechanistic investing rules such as stop-loss limits or other formulas. Work very hard to better understand how you as an investor react to both prosperity and adversity, and particularly to the market’s manic swings, both euphoric and traumatic. Keep an investment diary and re-read it from time to time but particularly at moments when there is tremendous exuberance and also panic. We are in a very emotional business, and any wisdom we can extract from our own experience is very valuable.”

* “Understanding the effect of emotion on your actions has never been more important than it is now. In the midst of this great financial and economic crisis that grips the world, Central Banks are printing money in one form or another. This makes our investment world even more prone to bubbles and panics than it has been in the past. Either plague can kill you.”

Why It Seems to Take Longer to Go to Work Than to Go Home

The journey from home to an office or any other destination feels longer than the return trip, according to a series of studies by Priya Raghubir, Vicki G. Morwitz, and Amitav Chakravarti of New York University. In one experiment with 127 undergraduates, for example, participants estimated that it took them an average of about 22 minutes to go from home to the classroom, but just 17 minutes to get back. The reason, the researchers suggest, may be that people mentally define the destination "home" as a relatively large area and unfamiliar destinations as relatively small.